Using the
Extra Time
This week I saw two very interesting TV programs. PBS’
American Experience (last night) and
CNN’s (last Saturday) that I found instructive and balanced. I wish we had more programs that increase our
knowledge of this deadly epidemic.
Let me start with the CNN program. Don Lemon and Van
Jones hosted it. I admit that I am an admirer of Van Jones and that I dislike
Don Lemon. Both are African American TV personalities. The subject was the impact of the virus on
communities of color. Findings show that African Americans and Hispanics are
being disproportionally impacted. Reasons? Socio-economic by-and-large. Another
important factor cited was concentration in major cities such as New York,
Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and New Orleans.
African American and Hispanic celebrities such as Magic
Johnson and Charles Barkley appeared as guests. It was the general consensus
that these communities are more vulnerable because many find themselves at the
bottom of the economic ladder, have poor education, are housed in tighter
spaces, are reluctant or unable to access healthcare and hold jobs that puts
them at a greater risk. African Americans have high rates of diabetes, obesity,
sickle cell anemia and coronary problems.
No solutions were offered. Charles Barkley, in his
signature candid style, suggested that folks in the communities must take
responsibility for their own behavior. He pointed out that many of the
underlying conditions are the result of the choices people make e.g., we eat
too much, we drink too much, we exercise too little and so on.
The PBS program was different. It chronicled the
epidemic from its start in Washington State all the way to the present. It gave an up-to-date overview of the medical
experience, the public health challenge, the politics, the management issues,
and the shifting priorities. It points out that initially our leaders failed to
take the issue seriously and that the nation was ill prepared for an epidemic
of this proportion.
It was interesting to hear that there are seventy
projects worldwide working on a vaccine. Five of these projects are on
an accelerated testing timeline. Once the vaccine is found the next challenge
will shift to how fast and economically to produce the 14 billion doses needed
for the treatment of the world population. The logistics and the funding will
be huge challenges.
It is a war
…
What we have learned to date is that there is an all
out war to defeat the virus. Like any war, you do not measure success based
on winning one or more battles. You achieve victory when you defeat the enemy.
We will not know how good our strategy is until then.
The Fog of
War
During a war it is difficult to make decisions in the
midst of a conflict.
The lessons learned from the Vietnam War are many:
Empathize
with the enemy.
Rationality
alone will not save you.
There
is something beyond one’s self.
Maximize
efficiency.
Proportionality
should be a guideline.
Get
the data.
Believing
and seeing are both wrong.
Be
prepared to re-examine your reasoning.
In
order to do good, you may have to engage in evil.
Never
say never.
You
cannot change human nature.
It would be wise for our leaders to visit these
lessons and avoid repeating the errors. A review of our performance to date
shows that we are not fully heeding the lessons. I leave to the reader’s
imagination to zero in.
We Are
Winning Most of the Battles
Caught up in party politics and blinded by our own
paradigm, we often fail to see the progress we are making and as a result we
fritter away our accomplishments.
Let’s examine our battles …
We did flatten
the curve. While not a strategy to win the war, it did help us prevent the
overwhelming of our hospitals. We did such a great job that we did not have to
use the field hospitals erected by the US Army of Engineers or the hospital
ships provided by the US Navy.
We have won so far the sheltering in place. While
not a strategy to win the war, it has helped contain the spread of the virus.
By keeping open just essential services we have reduced the human-to-human
contact, thus limiting further the spreading of the virus.
We have won the social
distancing. While not a strategy to win the war, it has helped us further
limit human interaction. Less interaction the more likely that there will be
less transmission of the virus.
Congress and the President have acted expeditiously by
providing trillions of dollars to
help those who have lost their jobs, businesses that have had to close or wind
down, and state and local organizations particularly hit by the epidemic. Additional
funding is being considered to address disruptions nationwide. Politicians
added quite a bit of pork to fund their pet projects by capitalizing on the
crisis.
We have won the numbers
battle. Initial models and estimates of potential cases and deaths were all
over the board. We were told that up to 2.2 million Americans would die. The
number of deaths has now been shaved to 60,000. While one death is one too
many, each year about the same number of people die from the common flu. As the
number of cases continues to grow, we are reminded that 96-98% of the cases do
not result in death.
We have not won the battle when it comes to shortages
of masks, gowns, ventilators, and other critical medical supplies. We started
out with inadequate stocks and have had issues catching up. Much unfinished
business remains. The national, state and local strategic resources were
woefully inadequate for an epidemic of these proportions.
We have not yet won the testing. The CDC (not Trump) rejected using the German test opting
to develop its own. It was a bad decision in the short term. We are now increasing
our capacity to test exponentially as the FDA approves new and novel ways to
expand the programs. There is room for optimism as these new tools come on
line.
The Final
Battle
It is shaping up as we speak. There are two approaches
in play. It is evolving into partisan choices. Democrats want to go slow on
re-opening the economy by insisting on testing, testing, testing. Republicans
counter with the argument that one size does not fit all. They prefer a more
rapid opening up in places where the risk is less or more manageable.
The nation’s economy has taken a big hit. More than 25 million people have been furloughed. Thousands of businesses have been forced
to close. The longer the shutdown, the longer it will take for the economy to
bounce back. The longer the shutdown lasts, the more likely that the nation’s
treasury is further depleted and beyond repair.
I am a skeptic.
Both approaches are driven by political motivations. It seems that both parties are jockeying for
advantage in the upcoming general election. A rapid economic turnaround would
benefit Republicans. A slow recovery would benefit Democrats.
I find this reasoning faulty at best and evil at its
worst.
Lessons from
Football
American football teaches us an important lesson.
A ball hurled too quickly at a receiver goes over his
head. It results in an incomplete pass. The same happens if the ball is hurled
too slowly. It lands at the receiver’s feet as an incomplete pass as
well.
Are we playing Ping-Pong with a zero sum outcome? We should leave politics out … there is more at
stake here than an election … people’s lives.
