Sorting Things Out ...

A little over two weeks have gone by and the post-election's dust has yet to settle. It was not supposed to go this way. Why? The media was giving Clinton an 85% chance or better. There was no way that Trump could become President. President Obama, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and other luminaries had said so. It was in the bag! Clinton would be the next President, and the first female President.

It did not turn out that way, did it?

Democrats went into shock, then got angry, and some loudly proclaimed: Not my president! Celebrities and diehard democrats had vowed to leave the country if Trump would win, but cowardly have chosen to remain.

Republicans were as surprised as the Democrats. The media had convinced everyone that there was no way the republican candidate had a chance to win. Many predicted that the Democrats would win not just the White House, but control of the Senate as well. Republicans had resigned themselves to minimizing their losses and vowing to make it next time. Several Republicans running for office went out of their way to disassociate themselves from their party nominee.

If You Don’t Like the Results …

Group dynamics teaches us that groups, when in defensive retreat, will employ predictable defenses. First, clamor to change the rules … then to abolish the Electoral College. Second, claim irregularities with the voting machines and ask for a recount. Third, question the legitimacy of the winner because he received fewer votes on a national basis.

It is hard to shift from a sure win to a sure loss.

Someone said that Democrats took Trump literally, while Republicans took him seriously. Indeed, if you took Trump literally, many should rightfully be scared. After all, he is racist, homophobe, xenophobe, misogynist, or worse. The anti-Trump demonstrations that followed his election have expressed fear of Trump’s potential actions. They imagine hate, divisions, brutality, dictatorship, and other horrible consequences. A few have the audacity to accuse the President-elect of being worse than Hitler.

The Benefit of the Doubt

Many staunch liberals are not open to that. They have already decided that he is unworthy of the office, which rightfully belonged to their candidate. They have a tough time imagining Trump as a pragmatic and well-intentioned politician.

Trump announced his first 100-day priorities. Guess what? The rhetoric has pretty much toned down. No Armageddon! No mass deportations, no repeal of Obama Care, no economic chaos!

The DOW broke 19,000 … Unemployment rate drops below 5% … Foreign leaders take a customary, conciliatory approach and welcome Trump’s victory.

My Predictions

Nobody can foretell the future, but all of us can imagine. Here are my 10 guesses for the next four years:

·      Obama Care will be mended, not ended. Republicans might play slight of hand with the nomenclature, but key provisions will be maintained such as pre-existing conditions, coverage of dependent children until age 26, and subsidized rates for the poor.

·      No mass deportations. Criminal undocumented aliens will be pursued and sent back. The wall will be built in some form, physical or electronic. Legislation will tighten immigration rules.  Illegal immigrants, in the country for several years, will be given the opportunity to legalize their status. Sanctuary cities will feel the squeeze of the federal government to support ICE or lose significant amounts of transfers. Mayors of Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and other cities will squawk and complain, but they will quietly get in line.

·      A massive infrastructure bill will pass and spur a significant rise in economic activity and better paying job prospects. If the traditional multiplier applies, we can see a significant spill over that would generate more revenue for the national treasury.

·      The tax system will undergo some streamlining in the rates. U.S. companies with more than two trillion dollars parked overseas will be encouraged to bring these funds home after paying a nominal fine.

·      Women will continue to have the right to an abortion. Not sure, though, if Planned Parenthood will continue to receive federal money. Some particulars will be delegated to the States. The landmark U.S Supreme Court case will not be overturned.

·      NAFTA will be renegotiated to eliminate imbalances and to give the American worker more protection. The Trans-Pacific trade deal is already dead and so is the Trans-Atlantic trade deal under negotiation. Trump will favor bilateral agreements.

·      The economy will pick up steam during the second year of Trump’s presidency and grow at the rate of 3-4%. Wages will rise at a robust 4-5%.

·      The pipeline bringing oil from Canada to Texas will be started. A more even-handed, and less ideological approach to climate change will give clean coal, gas and oil a fairer treatment while continuing the diversification of our energy sources.

·      The U.S. will find accommodation with Russia to finally defeat ISL and bring closure to the Middle East wars.

·      Educational choices will expand as the federal government promotes more leeway for parents in selecting a school for their kids. The competition from charter schools will make public schools more effective.

Conclusions

If Trump accomplishes 8 out of these ten “predictions”, the Republican Party will increase its control of the Senate by at least 6 more senators by dislodging those 6 senators running for re-election in 2018 from red states.

Furthermore, Trump will have set the path for a massive victory in 2020 with control of both houses. He will have managed to clean up his tarnished image and political hatchet job at the hands of his political enemies.

Wishful thinking? For the good of the country, I hope so ...