SPECULATION ON PUTIN'S MOTIVE

In its July 31, 2017 issue Time has a detailed description of Russia’s meddling in the U.S. elections, and President Obama’s plan to respond to and limit the damage.  Massimo Calabresi, an accomplished reporter, provides an in-depth and clear description of the surrounding events.

Speculation

The dictionary defines speculation as forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence. Since the election debacle, Democrats and Republicans have engaged in it ad nauseam.

Let me join the fray. I want to speculate, without evidence, of course, that the real winner of the 2016 Presidential election is Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. You might be thinking how. Let me elaborate…

O.K., step back, relax, and watch the conjecture as it unfolds. Remove your political blinders and put your hat of speculator on. Hard to do, yes, but try. You have nothing to lose and much to gain: increased clarity and perhaps more objectivity. Escape your political paradigm and discover what might be going on under our noses without realization on our part.

How do you do that? Imagine that you are sitting in an arena and watching the drama unfolding under your eyes. Look at the actors’, imagine their motives, examine their style, and speculate on their actions.

If Putin’s goal was to cast doubt on our democratic process, he surely has done that. If Putin’s goal was to harden the divisions in America between Republican and Democrat constituencies, he has done that. If Putin’s goal was to engage the White house and Congress in a time absorbing charade, he has done that.  If Putin’s goal was to undermine our democracy, he seems to have succeeded.

Why the Animus?

The Obama administration got involved in the last Russian Presidential elections siding with those opposing Putin. It has been reported that the State Department donated $ 400,000 to the party opposing Putin’s candidacy. The so-called reset of the Russia-USA relationship went awry from the start as Clinton alienated Putin and his associates. How? By working behind the scenes to oust the Kremlin-friendly President of Ukraine.

Putin might have concluded that the USA and the European Union’s goal was to contain Russia and diminish its traditional sphere of influence, to surround it with former satellite nations now converted to NATO membership, and to relegate Russia to second tier world power.  

Lets not forget that the collapse of the Soviet Union left deep wounds and scars amongst the ruling class of that era. Many saw it as a deliberate humiliation imposed on their country by the U.S. and its allies.

I speculate that these factors triggered opportunistic actions by Putin and his associates. First, he took advantage of events distracting the Obama Administration by annexing Crimea, and second, by stoking irredentist aspirations of the large Russian-speaking community living in neighboring countries.

Immediate rejection and condemnation of the Crimean annexation by the West overlooked important factors. Most inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula are ethnic Russians; and, Crimea had been an integral part of Russia for centuries. It was Khrushchev, an ethnic Ukrainian, who arbitrarily assigned Crimea to Ukraine. The Russian fleet is based there. It was odd that its main naval base resided not in their country but in a country wanting to join NATO.

The Russians followed the Crimean annexation with encouragement to rebels in the eastern and most industrialized part of Ukraine to secede. An attempt perhaps to create a buffer zone separating Russia from the encroaching NATO.

There is a lot of evidence that Russia did try to meddle and mess around in our elections, raising questions about the transparencies of our elections, and providing fodder to conspiracy and collusion theories. All the intelligence services are unanimous about it, and so are the intelligence services of our major allies. What is at issue is the implications of the Russian cyber invasion, and the damage it created to our civil discourse and faith in our institutions.

The Loser

Clearly, in the short term, the U.S. has been victimized.  Its role in the world has been diminished by revelations that Russia was capable to compromise its elections.

Questions were raised in people’s mind whether Trump’s election is legitimate, even though the instrusion did not change any votes.  As a result, the U.S. has a diminished president.  Some people have concluded that Putin has something on Trump, and that Trump is doing Putin’s bidding.

Congress has been sucked into a variety of investigations that distract it from taking actions on priority issues such as healthcare, tax code reform, and infrastructure investments.

The DNC has been exposed to ridicule for its quixotic shenanigans and infighting. Wholesale changes followed in an attempt to clean the slate of staffers favoring one of the other presidential candidates. Democrats are angry with Putin, and some blame him for Clinton’s loss, including Clinton herself. Their get-tough-on-Russia has reached hysterical proportions.

The Republicans have found themselves embroiled in a narrative casting suspicion on the character of key actors. Many of its elected officials have been mercifully pilloried and ridiculed by the “heroic” press.  Democrats have coopted them in enacting legislation to punish Russia where it hurts the most, its economy.

Mainstream media, in its self-assumed heroic role, has often found itself ahead of events, having to double back and retract premature  “Breaking News” or half-baked scoops.  Rather than reporting the news, many in the media flooded the airwaves and the newsprint with negative news about Trump and his administration. The imbalance in the reporting has alienated many viewers, thus reducing its viewership.

The Winner

The clear winner in the short terms is Putin. He has emerged from the situation with more gravitas, as someone with which we must deal. He seems emboldened enough to rattle his sword and impress the world that without Russia major problems such as ISL and North Korea cannot be solved. He has managed, with his “divide and conquer” strategy, to pit American against American.

In the long run, it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Putin. He has energized Americans against Russia and his regime. An energized America is someone to be reckoned with, as the cold war should have taught Putin. America has the power and resources to do Russia substantial harm, where it hurts most, its economy.

What Next?

The wisest thing to do is to let the Special Counsel do his investigative job. Congress should return to its important role of enacting laws that benefit the life of every American.  The Democrats must return to the role of the loyal opposition.

President Trump needs to stop sending his daily twits. He needs to take on a thicker skin and ignore criticism hurled at him by an adversarial press. He needs to remain focused on the agenda that got him elected.

The press must focus on reporting, not making the news, not speculating as to people’s motives and loyalties. A clearer separation between opinion and facts needs to be established. Reporters must act in a way that gains the confidence and support of the consumer. Otherwise, readership and viewership will continue to decline, thus dooming the very existence of the press, as we know it.