What is Left of Obama's Legacy?

It has been about 120 days since Donald Trump became President. Adversaries trumpet, no pun intended, that he has not been able to accomplish much. Supporters, on the other hand, believe that he is delivering on his campaign promises.

Let’s examine how Trump’s actions might have impacted Obama’s legacy. Although 4 months a trend do not make, it is interesting to examine the trajectory. In 2008, it did not take Obama long either to erase Bush’s accomplishments. We might be witnessing the same.

As I discussed in my previous post, with a two-party system, America oscillates back and forth, on average, every eight years. That means that we take a couple steps forward before we go back a step and some. The wider the gulf in the political positions of the two parties, the more widely will the pendulum swing.

Obama Care

It was supposed to be Obama’s signature legacy. The House about 15 days ago repealed and replaced the law, pending Senate action. There are many things in the House bill that need to be buttoned down and changed. The Senate will surely come up with a gentler and more compassioned version. The reconciliation will smooth out those items that need rework. Obama Care will disappear, as we know it, once that happens. 

Obama Care, in my view, was instrumental in making many Republicans come around to the notion that healthcare should be a human right. In the rush to get it approved, Democrats made the colossal mistake of not seeking a bi-partisan solution. Senate Republicans hopefully will not repeat the Democrats’ mistake.

Foreign Policy

The Obama legacy was on shaky grounds for some time. Events on the ground have shown its timidity and inconclusiveness. President Obama, immediately after his election, chose a path that gave him initial but short-lived victories. Some folks suggested that he preferred to be loved rather than being respected.

He flew to Cairo to promise a new, more enlightened era under his rule. He quickly embraced the Arab Spring, before fully understanding its consequences or shadow benefactors. It did not take long before events on the ground began to unravel to be followed by increased conflict. Much of the Middle East erupted in flames. The fire is still smoldering in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Syria. Red lines were set and red lines crossed in Syria, highlighting the weakness of the U.S. resolve.

Troops were hastily removed from Iraq, in order to deliver on a campaign pledge, only to be brought back a couple years later, albeit in smaller numbers, to fight ISL. Troop levels were reduced in Afghanistan only to be increased a few years later to combat increased Taliban and Al Qaeda activity.

Russia annexed Crimea and aided secessionists in Ukraine. Obama responded with timidity and ineffectually. Sanctions have hurt Russia, but also have emboldened President Putin to challenge the U.S. in many areas and sectors. In Syria, in particular, the Russians have enlarged their footprint by expanding their naval and air bases, and by pretty much taking over the war against the insurgents.  They have also stealthily narrowed American involvement to just fighting ISL.

After setting some imaginary lines in the sand with respect to Iran’s nuclear activity, in the end, Obama forged an agreement that slows but does not end the Iranian regime’s quest for a nuclear capability, which will surely be followed by a Saudi Arabian response in kind. To his critics' chagrin, Obama freed billions of dollars sequestered by the Carter Administration after the hostage fiasco.

North Korea shows the same pattern. Threats and lines in the sand followed by impotence. The rogue regime is a huge threat to world peace and an existential threat to its neighbors. They are now developing ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.

Former Secretary Clinton once commented that a ‘do no harm’ foreign policy is not a strategy. The major Obama accomplishment was that, under his watch, Osama bin Laden was apprehended and killed. History has shown that Clinton was right in her assessment.

In international trade, both the Transpacific (TPP) and the European trade agreements were perceived as not being fair trade agreements, and that much was being traded away at the expense of the blue collar worker in the name of the global economy and the building of better relations with our allies and friends. Critics argued that more cleaver negotiators on the other side managed to clean our clock repeatedly.

Discontent with NAFTA has been fueled by the perceived notion that the agreement is not balanced. Some saw that Obama was loath to disturb our relations with Canada and Mexico, thus ignoring glaring issues in the pact.

Domestic Policy

Besides Obama Care, the landscape is a mixed bag. A flurry of Executive Orders divided the nation at a time when the nation needed desperately a unifier in chief. His lack of interest in working with Republicans and to micro-manage implementation, loaded businesses with thousands of regulations, thus increasing the cost of doing business and weakening their ability to compete on the international arena.

In all fairness, Obama inherited an economy in free-fall, and markets in disarray. Unemployment had jumped to over 10%. Many businesses were at a stand still. Drastic actions were surely in order. However, many of his initiatives were perceived to be half-baked. During Obama’s first two years, he controlled both chambers of Congress and could have had whatever he wanted. He chose to make healthcare his priority when focusing on the economy would have been wiser.

The shovel-ready jobs never materialized. The country’s national debt doubled during his tenure. The number of folks not working jumped to an old time high of 95 million. The number of people on food stamps jumped to more than 45 million. Home ownership rates took a hit. He did manage to rescue the auto industry. However, the real beneficiaries were the unions, not the shareholders.

He was lolled to sleep by the numbers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). People who exhausted their unemployment insurance were not counted in the unemployment rate, giving the false impression that the country was doing much better than it really was. The number -of-jobs-added reports made it sound like the country was on the rebound when in fact it was slowly climbing out of a huge hole, and the incremental gains were a slow recovery of what had been lost.

During Obama’s tenure, we witnessed an explosion of regulations, some very much needed, others not so. With regulations came a larger bureaucracy, which increased costs and slowed down management action across several business sectors. Some of the regulations were based on ideology rather than common sense practice thus dividing the nation further.

The Legacy Thing

Facts are stubborn things. They fail to go away and give rise to “inconvenient truths.” Here are some of them:

·      During the eight years of Obama’s presidency Democrats lost control of the House in 2012 and control of he Senate in 2014. He leaves behind a party in disarray, not sure of what direction to take, and in the hands of leftists.

·      900 elected office positions were lost to the Republicans. The Democrat party has become a regional party, strong along the west coast and the Northeast corridor. He left the heartland more Republican than he had inherited eight years earlier.

·      The military was shrunk, thus weakening our ability to fight on more than two fronts. Morale declined as mismanagement of the Veterans Administration hit the evening news.

·      The national debt stands a little over 100% of our gross national product, saddling the budget with a large debt service. The increased debt interest charges reduce the amount of money available for infrastructure and social programs.

·      Many hoped after Obama’s election that he would be a great catalyst for improved race relations. Although he appointed many minorities to high positions, race relations actually took a dive.

·      DACA spared about a million young illegal aliens living in the shadows. These aliens were young kids brought over by their illegal immigrant parents through no fault of their own. Compassion was and still is the right thing to do.

·      Our image on the world stage has been diminished by our lack of resolve and indecisiveness. Russia is imposing its will on its neighbors and destabilizing some of our friendly nations. Many of our allies have quietly questioned our leadership.

·      People give Obama a high approval score. They see him and his family in favorable light, although they might not approve of his policies or question his accomplishments. Critics point out that his aloofness prevented a better working arrangement with Congress. This is in contrast to Trump, where people dislike his style and bombast, but seem to like his policies.

·      Trump in just 100 days has managed to erase many of Obama’s accomplishments by reversing most Obama’s Executive Orders, by approving the Canadian pipeline, withdrawing from looming trade agreements, reversing some climate initiatives, and tightening our immigration policies.

In the end, Obama appears to be joining George W. Bush in the dustbin of history leaving behind a dubious legacy. When he was elected, he raised expectations beyond his ability to deliver. He will remain, however, a beloved personage and a symbol to many for years to come.