The Risky Business of Foretelling the Future

Predicting the future is a risky business, but one that gives us respite from the tedious everyday.  It is a trip into speculation and “I told you so” territory.

I start my journey with the following assumption. 

In a democracy, we often choose winners to counterweight their predecessors alleged lack of results or in opposition to them.  It has been suggested that the reason Trump won was Obama’s dismal performance. We elected Obama because we opposed vehemently Bush II’s performance. We selected Bush II to contravene Bill Clinton’s personal excesses. I could continue the list all the way back to FDR.

My point is that politics is a game of action-reaction. The pendulum has a way of swinging widely based on voters' reaction to actions taken by the incumbent administration. The larger the swing, the more likely we are to oscillate from one extreme to the other.

It looks to me that elections are guided by what has been called lagging indicators (rear view mirror) from the economy, war and peace, jobs, and so on. In a sense we look back at mistakes and choose someone who we anticipate might fix them. We rarely choose someone because of his or her views on issues affecting future generations. We prefer politicians who are good plumbers, you know, good at fixing leaks.  I recall two occasions when a president energized us about the future. JFK told us that we could go to the Moon in ten years, and we did. Wilson told us that the formation of the League of Nations would prevent future wars, but it did not. Maybe there have been others, but I don’t recall.

Scenario

It is 2033! 

The prior year (2032) we held the presidential elections. The Democrats won handily. For the first time we elected a woman as our president, and a woman of color to boot. Voters had enough of 16 years of Republican rule. It was time to change. The voters chose a progressive and liberal agenda over a conservative one. Voters also gave the new president’s party control of both houses of Congress.

Reflecting the mood of the country, the president’s cabinet is composed exclusively of women, LGBT, brown or black, most under the age of 45. Lower level positions will be assigned in such a way as to reduce, and eventually eliminate, perceived white privilege.

The new president has been in her job for about a year. Much turmoil and instability have marked her first year in office. Pent-up resentment and a sense of urgency have resulted in new laws and initiatives. The reaction from the right has been strident.   

New Laws

Congress has passed a flurry of laws to satisfy the progressives'  hunger. Here are the most significant laws passed during the first year:

·      Gun Legislation – all guns have been outlawed. Citizens are urged to turn them in voluntarily or face confiscation. Violators could be imprisoned for up to five years, Citizens can rent and still use guns at shooting ranges.

·      Immigration – all illegal immigrants have been given amnesty. The country has opted for open borders. Anyone can come to the U.S. to live if they do not have a criminal record.  Immigrants will be entitled to vote after one-year residency.

·      Healthcare – Congress has voted for a single payer system. No one will go without coverage. High earners will pay for the lower earners. No one shall be without insurance coverage. Immigrants will receive coverage upon arrival.

·      Energy – the use of coal and drilling for oil is outlawed starting 2020. All new cars will be electric starting 2040. All buildings and residences are required to install solar panels or face large fines by 2040. In Chicago and other windy cities, all residents will be required to take advantage of the wind by installing wind-propelled energy generation systems.

·      College Loans – Congress has forgiven all such loans. The outstanding debt will be repaid by increased corporate and high earners' taxes. New college loans will be made available upon demand without obligation to repay them.

·      Inheritance Tax – Congress has passed a law designed to tax estates valued at more than $ 15 million dollars at 75% rate. This law will singlehandedly reduce the number of super rich Americans.

·      Living Wage – Americans will be entitled to earn a minimum wage that enables them to live in the State in which they reside. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will compute the actual rates semi-annually for each State. In 2035 California, for example,  the minimum wage rate will jump to $ 50 per hour while in Mississippi it will grow to $ 15 per hour.

Unfinished Business

The agenda for the remaining three years is an ambitious one. The intent is to radically transform America to an all-inclusive, diverse, and egalitarian society where society’s needs supersede the individual’s.  In particular, new laws will be enacted in the remaining years of the legislature to:

·      Reduce the size of the military so that funds can be redirected toward social programs

·      Disarm the police and implement a quota system for arrests in order to prevent profiling and police shootings

·      Punish non-PC language that offends anyone with jail time  

·      Legalize drugs starting with pot immediately

·      Expunge drug convictions and allow ex-convicts to vote

·      Establish price controls on drug companies

·      Require all employers with 50 or more employees to establish works councils so that union members can participate in the running of a company

·      Depopulate our prison system of  low level offenders

·      Establish clear boundaries around the role and practice of religion  

·      Expand the Supreme Court from 9 to 15 to break the conservative majority of 7 to 2 after the retirement of  liberal justices Ginsburg and Breyer, and the replacement of Thomas and Kennedy with young conservative judges

Reactions by Republicans

The reactions have been predictable and vehement. Fear that these changes will forever change their way of life, many have embarked on resisting at all cost.

·      Demonstrations have bubbled up in the heartland and throughout the south. The auto industry and the many satellite vendors and suppliers have notified their workers of pending layoffs.

·      35 attorney generals have sued the federal government on the grounds that constitutional rights are being thwarted: freedom of speech, right to own guns, and violation of collective bargaining laws.

·      The same states have deployed their national guard to prevent immigrants from entering their state without prior approval by the host state. The federal government is suing these states claiming that they do not have the right to prevent free movement of goods and people.

·      Fox News has revealed that the president, while in college, smoked marijuana and drank excessively. Several men have come forth to describe trysts they had with the President in college.

·      CNN debunked reports that the President had an affair with her driver while going to Camp David. The driver has not been identified. CNN attacked the revelation as fake news.

·      Conservative students at the University of California prevented Barak Obama from speaking. One professor unleashed a foul-mouthed rejoice upon hearing of Bill Clinton’s death.

·      Ex-partner of the president accuses her of infidelity and chicanery during their seven-year relationship. He broke up with her after learning of her relationship with another woman.

·      Clubs have been organized nation-wide to resist, resist, and resist any and all actions undertaken by this administration as un-American and in violation of the constitution.

·      Fox News is pillorying the administration’s every move and criticizing each and everyone as being incompetent, corrupt, and lacking the high moral standards they demanded of their adversaries.

·      Lurid videos on the Internet question the president’s personal character and scandal-ridden background. President labels these stories as fake news.

·      Thousands of Republicans have left coastal states unable to accept what they perceive as a totalitarian shift toward Marxism.

·      The economy is not doing well. Unemployment is up and the national deficit is growing. The stock market has been tanking out of fear for the survival of the free enterprise system.

·      Ford and General Motors have sought bankruptcy protection as they shift production to electric cars and trucks. Chrysler-Fiat is shifting all car and truck production south of the border. About 250,000 auto workers are affected.

Reactions by Democrats

The response from the Democrats has been vehement as well.  They see the Republican tactics as obstruction and resistance to the orderly transfer of power. Many are calling for action:

·      All dissenters and troublemakers should be jailed after a quick summary court appearance.

·      Grass root efforts should be encouraged to take over the governorship in enough states to permit the elimination of the Electoral College in favor of national elections for President and Vice President.

·      All Democrats are encouraged to watch at least one of the two cable networks and three main media channels: CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and NBC to prevent them from folding due to major drop in their viewership.

·      Counter demonstrations should be organized to offset the nightly spectacle of Republicans demonstrating against the incumbent administration.

·      In keeping with community organizing principles, the administration should increase recruitment of immigrants from Black or Brown countries in order to gain a voting advantage. Immigration from Europe, Australia, and other predominant white countries should be halted indefinitely.

·      Intellectuals continue to highlight the merits of a classless, more equal and just society. They remain unconvinced that those who perform more or better should receive more of the rewards. Their philosophy remains "to each according to his/her need, not his/her accomplishments."

Reality Testing

Unreal? Perhaps! Imagination has few boundaries. We are all free to imagine whatever suits our adventuresome mind. But I bet that most, if not all, of these "predictions" might come to pass.

Questions still remain. 

Will we be better off as a country or will be overwhelmed by our internal schism. 

The electorate is split and the two major parts are quickly moving into extreme territory. Each clings to its own view of America … perhaps without likelihood of reconciliation.